We recently undertook an investment trip to Côte d’Ivoire and neighbouring Ghana. Both countries are enjoying favourable current account balances as prices of their key exports are surging. Côte d’Ivoire is the world’s leading producer of cocoa, and exports oil, gold and cashew nuts. Cocoa price is currently four or five times above its trend price, and the gold price is also attaining record levels. Similarly, Ghana exports gold, oil and cocoa. This connection not only highlights their interdependence but also underscores why both markets are of strategic interest to investors seeking exposure to West Africa’s agricultural and industrial transformation.

Why current accounts matter to investors

A country’s current account balance is a key driver of its exchange rate movements. At its core, the current account reflects the net flow of money into or out of a country. A deficit means more money is leaving the country than coming in, while a surplus indicates the opposite. It captures trade in goods and services, cross border income flows such as dividends and interest, and transfers like foreign aid and remittances. Since global trade is a zero-sum game, these imbalances can significantly influence currency stability.

Shared cocoa leadership

Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire together produce over 60% of the world’s cocoa, making them critical players in the global chocolate supply chain. This shared dominance has led to coordinated efforts between the two countries, such as the establishment of a joint cocoa pricing mechanism to improve farmer incomes and stabilise market volatility. Their collaboration reflects a broader ambition to move up the value chain – from raw exports to local processing and branding – which could unlock significant economic value. The following graphs reflects the cocoa price – up from trend price of US$2 000 to around US$10 000. Certainly, this is a leading indicator for chocolate prices.

Ghana

Ghana is undergoing a boom. Half of its exports are gold, and another 20% are cocoa. Furthermore, a large portion of its foreign reserves are physical gold, which is recently repriced, bolstering its reserves. Additionally, Ghana is currently in somewhat of a honeymoon period following its 2024 debt restructuring, where its debt and interest repayments are at a reduced level. The net result of all these factors, is that the Ghanian cedi strengthened by around 50% this year. However, the cedi has a history of weakening, and we expect it to start heading in its usual direct again later in the year.

The Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) is now dominated by telecommunications company, MTN Ghana. MTN Ghana is the group’s third largest subsidiary (after Nigeria and South Africa) and the largest profit contributor to MTN Group’s Mobile Money (MoMo) operation. MoMo contributes about 25% of MTN Ghana’s revenue. At a market value of around US$3 billion, it represents around a third of the total market value of the GSE. The next largest business is the banks – Standard Chartered Ghana, Ecobank Ghana and state-controlled Ghana Commercial Bank. The stock exchange has been on a tear this year. It is up 27% in local terms and 80% in US dollar.

Côte d’Ivoire: Abidjan

This was only my second visit to Côte d’Ivoire since taking over management of the Old Mutual African Frontiers Strategy in 2012 – and I still have not seen much of the country. The hotel was just six kilometres from the airport but thanks to two hours of traffic (each way, twice), I got an unexpectedly thorough look at that short stretch. It rained solidly the entire time, so I became quite familiar with the drainage system – perhaps more than I ever intended.

Still, the investment conference I attended was a great opportunity to get up to speed with some of the companies listed on the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières SA (BRVM). The BRVM is based in Côte d’Ivoire’s capital Abidjan but represents many of the French speaking countries of West Africa. Côte d’Ivoire is the largest of Africa’s Francophone economies, which is about 20% of the size of the economies of Nigeria, Egypt and South Africa.

The BRVM has also enjoyed a strong year, delivered 32% in US dollar – made up of 17% in local currency returns and 15% from currency appreciation. Like other Africa exchanges, the BVRM’s market value is dominated by telecommunication businesses and banks. It also has a few agricultural related businesses involved in palm oil and rubber.As I mentioned, I only got to see a small part of the capital of Côte d’Ivoire, but maybe Abidjan is Côte d’Ivoire. A map showing Société Générale Côte d’Ivoire’s branch network, shows that around 50 of its 80 branches are in Abidjan and no other city with more than two branches. This suggests that there is little industry outside of the capital.

Republic of Benin

Interestingly the conference also put focus on Benin – a country boarding the western region of Nigeria, with Togo separating it from Ghana.

Benin’s main business is Nigerian logistics. With long delays and inefficiencies at Nigeria’s main port in the capital Lagos, Benin’s Port of Cotonou has long been the alternative to getting goods into Nigeria. Goods land in Benin, then get transported further north, entering Nigeria at various points along its border. Interestingly from 2023, Nigeria and Benin signed an agreement to allow goods intended for Nigeria to be cleared at the Port of Cotonou. Prior to this the industry was largely informal and is probably still largely so.

Benin is going through some positive reforms. The fiscal deficit is reducing, and gross domestic product growth has picked up from previous trend levels. From an investor perspective, in the last 12 months there have been two privatisation listings on the BRVM. The first was Loterie Nationale du Benin (National Lottery of Benin) in late 2024 and secondly state bank Banque Internationale pour l'Industrie et le Commerce in April 2025. It has been a long time since investors like us have had the opportunity to gain listed exposure to a new African market – so the prospect is exciting. Ethiopia is now in the process of joining that list, opening the door to fresh opportunities in one of the continent’s most populous and dynamic economies.

Old Mutual African Frontiers Strategy

Our African Frontiers Strategy is built on deep, on-the-ground research and a long-term commitment to identifying companies with the potential to deliver sustainable returns. We invest in businesses that are not only leaders in their local markets but also positioned to benefit from regional growth and structural transformation.

Our strategy includes MTN Ghana, a key player in West Africa’s fast-growing telecommunications sector and a subsidiary of the South African-listed MTN Group. In Côte d’Ivoire, we hold Société Générale Côte d’Ivoire, a well-capitalised bank with strong local market share, and Solibra, a dominant beverage company with a diversified product portfolio. We also invest in Sonatel, a regional telecommunications leader managed by France’s Orange Business, listed on the BRVM exchange. These companies reflect our strategy’s focus on scalable businesses with resilient earnings and exposure to high-growth economies.

Africa's evolving investment story

Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Benin have consistently delivered robust economic growth, underpinned by strong demographics, rising urbanisation, and expanding consumer markets. We see no material reason for this momentum to slow in the near term. While Ghana’s currency remains vulnerable to periodic devaluation, Côte d’Ivoire benefits from a currency pegged to the euro, offering relative stability – though even the euro has faced its own volatility in 2025.Africa’s investment story is evolving, and these markets are at the forefront of that transformation. For investors seeking long-term value, it is essential to pay attention – not just to headline growth figures, but to the companies driving innovation, employment, and regional integration. That is where our strategy is focused, and where we believe the next series of returns will be found.