There are periods in markets where everything feels urgent, where the world seems to move faster than one can process. Where every headline carries weight and every decision feels like it must be made now. Considering current conditions globally, it is safe to say we are living through one of these periods. From wars, tariffs, shifting alliances, rising inflation, and political realignment, it feels as though the ground beneath is constantly moving. And in many ways, it is.

When faced with these tough periods, the real challenge in investing is not navigating change. It is maintaining clarity while everything is changing, stepping back to assess the environment before reacting. And it is in assessing that we find one of the most important anchors, history. Not as a playbook but as a lens, because to understand today, we must consider the past.

To understand how oil shocks transmit through economies, how they feed into inflation, disrupt growth, and shift leadership from financial assets to real assets, one can study the 1970s. Look at periods where inflation was not theoretical, but experienced and where the cost of getting it wrong was severe. The late-1800s and early-1900s also help us to understand a world shaped by tariffs, protectionism, and industrial competition. A world where globalisation was not inevitable, and where national interest dictated economic outcomes. Wars, recessions, and regime shifts, when studied not as isolated events, highlight patterns that reveal how capital behaves under stress and how commodities, currencies, and equities rotate depending on the underlying macro regime.

However, it is important to also remember that history does not give us all the answers, but context. And in uncertain environments, context is often more valuable than prediction. Context to understand the world that we are entering and its characteristics, to then be able to make informed decisions.

What we are witnessing today is the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar global system, which is reshaping the investment landscape in real time. Globalisation is no longer a one-way path. Supply chains are being redrawn. Governments are playing a more active role in economies. Strategic resources and national security are becoming central to economic policy.

This has consequences. Inflation is likely to be structurally higher and more volatile. Growth will be less synchronised. Outcomes will be more dispersed across countries, sectors, and companies. And importantly, the range of possible outcomes widens. Naturally, in environments like this, the instinct is to do more. To trade more. To respond faster. To try and stay ahead of the next move. But I would argue that this is precisely when discipline matters most. Because the biggest risk in investing is not volatility. It is losing your anchor.

As Old Mutual Investment Group, for us, that anchor remains long-term thinking. A discipline – a deliberate choice to focus on what ultimately drives returns, rather than what dominates the narrative in the moment.

Over time, returns are shaped by a small number of enduring forces:

• The ability of businesses to generate and grow cash flows
• The price you pay for those cash flows
• And the power of compounding over time

Everything else, the noise, the positioning, the short-term reactions, fades in importance. Long-term investing rarely feels comfortable in the short term. It requires holding positions through uncertainty. It requires conviction when visibility is low. And often, it requires doing nothing when the world is telling you to act. Another lesson that has become clearer over time is the asymmetry of outcomes. A small number of decisions drive the majority of long-term performance, the companies you choose to own, the risks you choose to avoid and the moments where you lean in or step back.

This is why our focus has increasingly been on identifying what we believe to be underappreciated quality businesses that are fundamentally strong, cash generative, resilient, and capable of compounding through cycles. Not because they are immune to volatility, but because they can endure it.

At the same time, discipline requires us to recognise fragility to avoid situations where the downside is structural rather than cyclical. When investing, avoiding permanent loss is just as important as capturing upside. If the past decade rewarded exposure, the next decade will likely reward construction. The opportunity set is broader, but also more complex, making diversification essential. When diversification is done right, it is not about owning more assets but about owning the right combination of assets, aligned to a clear understanding of risk, return drivers, and client objectives.

In our own journey, this has meant integrating different capabilities, fundamental, quantitative, and asset allocation into a single, coherent framework because in a fragmented world, integration becomes a source of strength.

Ultimately, discipline is not built in frameworks. It is built through behaviour. It is revealed in the moments where uncertainty is highest – when markets move sharply, when narratives become dominant, when the pressure to act is greatest. Those are the moments that define outcomes.

When I reflect on where we are today, I am reminded that while the world changes, the principles of investing do not.

Inflation remains the silent destroyer of wealth. Time remains the investor’s greatest ally. Compounding remains the most powerful force in markets. And discipline remains the foundation that holds it all together. So perhaps the most important message for 2026 is a simple one. 

In a world that is fragmenting, accelerating, and becoming more uncertain, the long term is not just a horizon. It is a discipline. It is the anchor that allows us to navigate complexity without being consumed by it. And in the end, it remains the most reliable way we know to turn uncertainty into opportunity.